Thursday, June 30, 2005

Stock Market

I'm surprised that I haven't heard more commentators make this simple point -- a lot of cash is sitting on the sidelines waiting for the Fed to stop raising short term rates. There is an axiom to which a lot of investors and money managers subscribe: Don't Fight the Fed.

When you look at the performance of the markets over the first half of the year in the face of rapidly rising oil prices and the Fed's interest rate policy, the fact that stock prices are about where the year started should be viewed as a sign of underlying strength.

I expect the Fed to bump another quarter point today. But some time soon, they will stop. Greenspan doesn't want an inverted yeild curve. When they stop, I wouldn't be surprised to see the market take off. The economy is strong, productivity has been phenomenal and profits remain solid. When the money comes off the sidelines, the markets will rise.


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