Friday, May 12, 2006

Even Bigger Problems with Generic Ballot in Spring

Jay Cost provides some good reasons to ignore polling in the Spring on Congressional preference. I want to focus on one he doesn't mention.

One of the most important assumptions underlying the use of a poll in the Spring to predict voting trends in the fall is the premise that the voters responding to the polls have accurate information. Over the last few election cycles, the MSM has gone so far out of bounds as a partisan propaganda tool for the Democrats that an ever-growing segment of the voting public no longer regards it as trustworthy.

Every election cycle GOP candidates improve in the polls as soon as the GOP hits campaign mode and starts correcting the slanderous stuff that the MSM has been spewing since the last election. Although I don't agree with the strategic decision to wait until the fall to respond to all the lies and distortions, the GOP has chosen to do that. Invariably, hearing a second side of the story causes some voters to reassess their views.

In the election this fall, there is more misinformation in need of correction than at any time since I was old enough to vote. We have no way of guessing how many voters will be influenced when the record is set straight. But we can be pretty sure that any poll taken after only one side of the case has been presented will not accurately reflect how voters will decide once both sides have been presented.


Post a Comment

<< Home